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- Commodity Fundamentals - 2004 Articles


Potatoes

The potato is a member of the nightshade family. The leaves of the potato plant are poisonous and a potato will begin to turn green if left too long in the light. This green skin contains solanine, a substance that can cause the potato to taste bitter and even cause illness in humans. In Peru, the Inca Indians were the first to cultivate potatoes around 200 BC. The Indians developed potato crops because their staple diet of corn would not grow above an altitude of 3,350 meters. In 1536, after conquering the Incas, the Spanish Conquistadors brought potatoes back to Europe. At first, Europeans did not accept the potato due to the fact that it was not mentioned in the Bible and therefore considered an “evil” food. But after Marie Antoinette wore a crown of potato flowers, it finally became a popular food. In 1897, during the Alaskan Klondike gold rush, potatoes were so valued for their vitamin C content that miners traded gold for potatoes. The potato became the first vegetable to be grown in outer space in October 1995.

The potato is a highly nutritious, fat-free, cholesterol-free and sodium-free food, and is an important dietary staple in over 130 countries. A medium-sized potato contains only 100 calories. Potatoes are an excellent source of Vitamin C and provide B vitamins as well as potassium, copper, magnesium, and iron. According to the US Department of Agriculture, “a diet of whole milk and potatoes would supply almost all of the food elements necessary for the maintenance of the human body.”

Potatoes are one of the largest vegetable crops grown in the US, and are grown in all fifty states. The US ranks about 4th in world potato production. The top three types of potatoes grown extensively in the US are white, red, and Russets (Russets account for about two-thirds the US crop). Potatoes in the US are harvested in all four seasons, but the vast majority of the crop is harvested in fall. Potatoes harvested in the winter, spring and summer are used mainly to supplement fresh supplies of fall-harvested potatoes and are also important to the processing industries. The four principal categories for US potato exports are frozen, potato chips, fresh, and dehydrated. Fries account for approximately 95% of US frozen potato exports.

Prices – Potato prices in 2003 fell 9.5% to .18 per hundred pounds from .82 in 2002. Potato prices in 2003 weakened substantially after the strong run seen in 2000-2002 when prices hit a 14-year high of .99 in 2000. Bearish factors centered on weaker demand with the emphasis on lower carbohydrate diets and a 3-year high in stocks.

Supply –The potato crop in 2003 fell slightly by –0.1% to 45.924 billion pounds, which was well below the record high of 51.362 billion pounds posted in 2000. The fall crop was estimated at 41.35 billion pounds, accounting for 90.0% of the total crop. Stocks of the fall crop were estimated at a 3-year high of 26.716 billion pounds. The spring crop in 2003 was estimated at 2.231 billion pounds (4.9% of the total crop), the summer crop at 1.936 billion pounds (4.2% of the total crop), and the winter crop at 403 million pounds (0.9% of the total crop).

For the fall crop, the largest producing states are Idaho (with 29.8% of the fall crop in 2003), Washington (23.1%), Wisconsin (8.2%), North Dakota (6.5%), and Colorado (5.7%). For the spring crop the largest producing states are California (with 34.0% of the spring crop) and Florida (30.6%).

Farmers harvested 1.253 million acres in 2003, which was below the 10-year average of 1.334 million acres. The yield per harvested acre was 36,700 pounds, which was well above the 10-year average of 35,300.

Demand – Total utilization of potatoes in 2002 rose to 45.980 billion pounds from 43.789 billion in 2001. The breakdown shows that the largest consumption category for potatoes is table stock with 31.5% of total consumption, followed by frozen french fries (29.5%), chips and shoestrings (12.2%), and dehydration (12.1%). US per capita consumption of potatoes in 2002 fell to a 3-year low of 137.8 pounds from the 5-year high of 140.1 pounds posted in 2001.

Trade – US exports of potatoes in 2001, the latest reporting year for the series, fell to 555.829 million pounds from 644.190 million in 2000. US imports fell to 420.167 million pounds from 502.706 million in 2000.



*Articles from the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Yearbook. The single most comprehensive source of commodity and futures market information available, the Yearbook is the book of record of the Commodity Research Bureau, which is, in turn, the organization of record for the commodity industry itself. Its sources—reports from governments, private industries, and trade and industrial associations—are authoritative, and its historical scope is second to none. Additional information can be found at: http://www.crbtrader.com/pubs/yb.asp
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